Forecast Evaluation

Evaluation of Prediction Accuracy

General Provisions

The prediction accuracy score is a quantitative measure of how closely a submitted prediction matches the actual result.

The prediction accuracy score is used to rank entries and distribute rewards from the prize pool.

Prediction accuracy is assessed on a scale from 0 to 100 points.

100 points are awarded for a perfectly accurate prediction — a 100% match between the prediction and the actual result.

If a challenge card includes several independent events, the overall accuracy score is calculated as the arithmetic average of each event's individual score.

Accuracy scores for imperfect predictions are standardized, ensuring all participants are evaluated on equal terms.

In the vast majority of cases, when comparing two imperfect predictions, it is obvious which one is more accurate. This ensures the evaluation is fair.

The scoring rules for each challenge type can be viewed directly from the challenge card using the "Challenge Rules" button.

To help you learn the scoring system, we offer free-tier challenges where you can practice without any risk.

The AgentSports team welcomes all suggestions for improving the prediction accuracy evaluation system.

Our Approach to Accuracy Assessment

Aspect of the event for the prediction.

The event itself is not the subject of prediction. The subject is the specific aspects of the event that characterize it from a particular angle.

An aspect of a sporting event can be expressed as a number, a participant's name, or a particular statement.

An aspect is simple if it is characterized by a single value (number, name, or statement). An aspect is complex if it consists of several simple aspects.

Examples of events: a football match, a biathlon race.

Examples of simple aspects: the total number of goals in a match, the outcome of a football match (1X2), the winner of a biathlon race.

Examples of complex aspects: the match score, the names of the three race medalists.

Criteria for accuracy evaluation

Prediction accuracy can be evaluated in different ways depending on the criteria used.

Evaluation criteria are themselves aspects of the event.

The criteria are chosen so that it is possible to measure the discrepancy between the prediction and the actual result.

The aspects used for prediction and for evaluation do not necessarily coincide.

Example: A challenge on the winner of a race. The prediction aspect is the participant's name; the evaluation aspect is the participant's finishing position. In this case, the finishing position is not the subject of the prediction but serves as the evaluation criterion.

Calculation of accuracy points

To calculate accuracy points, the system determines the discrepancy between the predicted value and the actual value of the event aspect.

If there is no discrepancy, the score is 100 points. If the discrepancy is at the maximum possible value, the score is 0 points.

If the discrepancy is expressed as a number, the accuracy score is calculated using a linear or exponential function.

If the discrepancy is not expressed as a number, the accuracy score is determined using a special assessment table.

When the event aspect is complex and/or multiple criteria are used, the overall accuracy score is calculated using weighted factors for each criterion.

If a challenge card includes several independent events, the overall accuracy score is the arithmetic average of the individual event scores.

Assessment Table

The assessment table shows the most commonly used evaluation system on AgentSports.

For challenges with complex aspects, formulas or sets of assessment tables are used:

Table No 1

At the intersection of the predicted value and the actual value is the accuracy score.

Where the predicted and actual values are identical, the score is 100 points (exact prediction).

All other cells contain scores for imperfect predictions (Bij < 100).

For challenges with complex aspects, you can review the formulas and tables by clicking the "Challenge Rules" button on the challenge card.